Something is shifting on the Gold Coast.

More people want to live here – and that demand continues to grow.

At the same time, significant investment is being made across the city – from infrastructure to lifestyle and public spaces – reinforcing its position as Australia’s most desirable coastal market.

The proposed expansion of the Gold Coast Airport is one of the most visible examples of this, bringing renewed focus to the southern end of the coast as buyers look for a combination of lifestyle, connectivity and long-term appeal.

But that’s only part of the story

What’s happening behind the scenes is just as important.

Fewer new apartment projects are moving forward – particularly in established coastal pockets like Kirra, where development opportunities are increasingly limited.

Recent data from the PropTrack Home Price Index highlights just how strong demand has become on the Gold Coast as a whole, with apartment prices now sitting ahead of Sydney – driven by sustained demand outpacing supply.

In places like Kirra, that imbalance is becoming increasingly visible.

Why fewer projects are moving forward

Across South East Queensland, population growth continues, and buyer demand hasn’t slowed – but the delivery of new apartments has.

Although construction costs started to stabilise at the end of 2025, Cotality’s January 2026 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) shows costs are expected to come under renewed pressure in 2026 due to the situation in the Middle East, labour shortages, supply chain issues and volatile material prices.

That makes it much harder for new projects to stack up financially before they even start. As a result, many developments have been cancelled, delayed or shelved altogether.

The outcome is simple: fewer new apartments are coming to market, particularly in established, high-demand beachside locations like Kirra.

For buyers, that means fewer brand-new options to choose from, and more competition for quality projects that will actually be delivered.

Why timing matters more than ever

There’s an old saying in property: the best time to buy was yesterday. The second-best time is today.

Right now, that idea is being reinforced by real market conditions.

With Gold Coast apartment prices now far ahead of Sydney, and with new supply at historically low levels, the window to secure a brand-new apartment in a prime location is narrowing fast.

For first-home buyers, this is the moment to step out of an increasingly competitive rental market and into ownership. For investors, it means securing an asset in a market where new, high-quality property is becoming harder to find.

The South East Queensland housing squeeze

PropTrack’s Home Price Index shows that Gold Coast prices have risen by around $149,000 in the past year alone. At the same time, new projects across the region have dramatically slowed.

That combination is creating a clear divide in the market:

Recent research by the Australian Bureau of Statistics points to a simple reality: South East Queensland is growing faster than we are building.

This fact is reinforced by the Queensland Government’s “Shaping SEQ Regional Plan 2023”, which states:

“Over the next 25 years, SEQ’s population is expected to grow by 2.2 million people to almost six million people. This represents an average growth rate of 1.8 per cent per year. This growth will require almost 900,000 new homes by 2046, an average of 34,500 new homes each year, as well as increased transport accessibility, job opportunities and essential services.”

Kirra sits right at the centre of this shift.

It’s a tightly held beachside pocket where development opportunities are increasingly limited – meaning new apartment supply is not only constrained now, but highly likely to remain so.

At the same time, its appeal continues to grow. From its walkable coastline and strong sense of community to its proximity to the Gold Coast Airport and Pacific Highway, Kirra offers a combination of lifestyle and connectivity that’s becoming increasingly harder to find.

It’s this balance – limited supply and growing demand – that’s placing Kirra firmly on the radar for both owner-occupiers and investors.

This is about scarcity, not cycles

Property markets move in cycles. Supply constraints are different.

What we’re seeing now isn’t just a temporary slowdown in construction – it’s a structural shortage of new, well-located apartments.

While headlines often focus on interest rates, many buyers are increasingly asking a more practical question: what will actually be available to buy in 12 or 24-months’ time?

While some wait, supply keeps tightening

It’s natural for buyers to wait for the “perfect” moment. The risk is that while people wait for conditions to change, the pool of finished, well-located apartments continues to shrink.

Many buyers are waiting for interest rates to fall. But after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s two rate increases in early 2026, it’s just as possible we’re seeing the start of a longer stretch of higher rates.

In this market, timing is becoming less about picking the bottom of a cycle and more about securing something that will still be available to buy.

Households are changing

Part of what’s driving this short supply isn’t just population growth – it’s the way households are changing.

Property expert Michael Matusik highlights this shift in a recent article, noting the steady rise in single-person households over the past decades. He says:

“Living alone was once a rarity. In 1946, just 8% of Australian households housed a solo occupant. By 1981, it was 18%. By 2011, 24%. At the 2021 Census, we hit 26%, and today — in the post-pandemic world of remote work, lifestyle autonomy, and relationship shifts — the best estimate sits around 28%.”

With more people living on their own or in smaller households, demand for well-located one and two-bedroom homes continues to rise. This isn’t a short-term trend. It’s a structural shift in how and where people choose to live – and it’s adding long-term pressure to already limited supply.

The rental market is changing buyer behaviour

In another recent article, Matusik points out that rental vacancy rates on the Gold Coast, are no longer “tight”, they are practically non-existent.

With more households competing for fewer rental properties, pressure is building across the system — and for many buyers, that’s accelerating the move from renting to owning because they’re realising that the cost of waiting is being paid in rising rents.

For first-home buyers fed up with rental “musical chairs”, this isn’t just a financial decision – it’s about lifestyle.

For investors, it reinforces the strength of demand for well-located, high-quality apartments – particularly in tightly held, increasingly sought-after locations like Kirra.

Designed for how people want to live now

Matusik talks about the rise of the “right sizer” as one of the most resilient trends in today’s market – people choosing to move to premium apartments that offer space, quality and convenience without the upkeep of a traditional house.

He has long argued that the Gold Coast is missing its “middle” – boutique, high-quality residences that offer the space of a house, without the maintenance.

This shift isn’t just about downsizing. It reflects a broader move towards smarter, lower-maintenance living – from solo buyers and couples through to downsizers – and a growing readiness to look past some of the old assumptions about apartment living, many of which we explore in our earlier article, 5 Common Myths About Apartment Living.

This isn’t about compromising on lifestyle. It’s about simplifying it.

Kirra: Where it all comes together

Positioned at the southern end of the Gold Coast, Kirra offers a rare combination of beachside lifestyle, connectivity and everyday convenience – all within walking distance.

From morning swims at Kirra Beach to the local cafés, coastal walks and easy access to the Gold Coast Airport, it’s a location that naturally supports the way people want to live today.

Matusik’s latest research shows that “lifestyle motivated” buyers are leading the market – seeking a balance of location, liveability and long-term appeal. These are the same qualities that continue to draw both owner-occupiers and investors to Kirra.

This suggests that in a market where demand is building and new supply is increasingly limited, apartments in tightly held locations like Kirra will become harder to find.

If you’re interested in being first to hear about our upcoming Kirra project, please contact John Fishbourne today for a confidential chat.

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If this article has sparked questions, we’re here to help with answers, insights and guidance. Please contact John Fishbourne, Partner / Sales Manager, to find out more.

0417 793 083
jfishbourne@ashwinproperty.com.au
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